How to make a forecast for a football game
Football betting is in the greatest demand among players. This is not surprising, because many different matches are held every day, and several dozen high-level football tournaments can be counted.
The player now has all the necessary data to analyze the football game, as there is a lot of information in the open access on the Internet that will allow you to make a correct forecast for the match. However, most players lose. At the same time, the loss does not depend on how well the player is familiar with the teams and how long he watches the championship. It’s all about the wrong approach to predicting football games. We will try to figure out what factors and criteria should be taken into account when making a forecast for the game.
First you need to pick up a suitable event in the line. Try not to bet on top matches, as bookmakers make the least mistakes in them. If there is a choice between the game of the Premier League and the game of the Second Bundesliga, it is better to make a forecast for the game of the Bundesliga 2. Bookmakers give decent odds for this tournament, and the volume of bets on it is several times less than on the Premier League, so the offices are not so sensitive to the line coefficients and do not always notice any factors in time that change the chances of teams to win.
After you have selected a match for the game, you can start forecasting.
Key data for forecasting
1. Venue of the meeting
First of all, make sure that the home team is playing at their home stadium. Playing on a neutral field slightly changes the chances of teams, and such games happen from time to time for a number of reasons (the stadium does not have a certificate, the punishment of the team, bad turf in the stadium, etc.). It is also worth finding out if any sanctions have been imposed on the club. Even if the stadium is home, but the match will be held without spectators, then the probability of the home team winning will drop.
2. Evaluate the judging team
There are resources with referee statistics where you can find out how often the referee gives penalties, yellow or red cards. Also, if you dig around, you can find out how the referee judged your teams in previous meetings. A judge is an ordinary person who can have his likes and dislikes.
3. Weather conditions
Almost always bad weather conditions (rain, snow, strong wind, heat) play into the hands of outsiders. If you are analyzing a game that will take place in the next 1-2 days, then you need to look at the weather for the time of the match.
4. Fan support
Estimate the average attendance at the stadium and see how the fans support their team. The home stadium is always a plus for the team, but it is much better if it has a large army of fans who will drive the players throughout the game.
5. Statistical indicators
Many believe that statistics only mislead bettors, but it is also impossible to completely abandon it when forecasting. It is also important to take into account not the overall performance of the team, such as the average number of goals per game, but the performance of individual games. For example, a team can score 7 goals in one game, then score a goal in three games. According to statistics, she scores an average of 2.5 goals per game, but in reality the individual total was more than 2 in only one game, and in three the team played on TM 1.5.
Although team coaches often say that every single match is important, in reality this is not the case. A team can sacrifice a result in an insignificant championship game in order to come out fresh for a game in European competitions. It is also worth considering that the motivation will be greater for the team that claims the championship in the last rounds than for the team that has lost the theoretical chances of getting into European cups.
7. Team coaches
The personality of the coach is one of the components of the team’s success. Often after a football game you can hear the opinion that this is a coaching victory. This means that the teams are generally the same, but the right attitude to the game and the right coach replacements allowed us to win.
8. Lineups of teams
Sometimes famous clubs lose at the first stages of cup competitions. Such defeats are always a sensation, but if you look at the protocols of the games, then everything falls into place, since often the favorites produce a semi-reserve squad. When analyzing, make sure that the teams will perform with the optimal composition. If the teams have key players in the infirmary, you should reconsider your views on their chances.
9. Form of commands
Usually 5-7 of the last games of the teams are taken into account, but you also need to look at the level of their opponents.
10. News feed
It is always important to know what the mood of the players and the coach is, what changes are taking place in the club, etc.
All these factors need to be taken into account, but it is necessary to build on each specific match. In one team, the role of the coach is 10% of the success of the club, and in the second 25%. The situation is the same for all other team evaluation criteria.